On Saturday, September 17, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (47-1-1, 33KOs) will return to the super welterweight division to challenge Liam Smith (23-0-1, 13KOs) for his WBO title. Alvarez is the heavy favorite and for good reason. Smith is relatively unknown champion in the U.S, but his body of work does nothing to bolster any upset theories.
Smith possesses an undefeated record, with his only blemish being a draw in 2010 early in his career. The issue with Smith’s record is that he’s faced poor opposition. His fight with Alvarez will be his first time fighting outside of the U.K. He’s led a sheltered life throughout his boxing career. I think that he will wilt under the pressure of fighting a marquis name on such a grand stage. He’s nowhere near prepared for a fight of this magnitude.
Smith has a height advantage over Alvarez, but he’s not the bigger fighter. Alvarez has a strength advantage, which shows in his musclebound physique. The discrepancy in muscle mass is indicative of the difference in power between Alvarez and Smith. Smith is not a power puncher, but Alvarez most definitely is.
If Smith stood a chance of wining this fight, he would have to outbox Alvarez. The only person that has outboxed Alvarez is Floyd Mayweather, and Smith is no Mayweather.
Spend money on this fight if you like, but I have a feeling that this is going to be a glorified sparring session for Alvarez. The only question is whether Smith is going to lose by a lopsided decision or knockout.