On the eve of Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) vs. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs), everyone is rolling out their predictions, and I’m no different. I like to wait until after the weigh-in of a fight to make an official prediction, and here is mine: Alvarez by unanimous decision.
Alvarez is the betting favorite. Bovada.lv has the odds for Alvarez at 1.364 and the odds for Cotto at 3.15 . There are several factors that have the odds makers favoring Alvarez.
Youth will play a major role in this bout. Alvarez is 10 years younger than Cotto. That 10 years represents 10 more years of abuse that Cotto has absorbed than Alvarez. Cotto has been punished several times throughout his career. He took a terrible beating in his first fight with Margarito, and was punished again by Manny Pacquiao. Those fights have taken a lot out of Cotto.
I will admit that the addition of Freddie Roach has improved Cotto’s strategy and use of the ring. Against Daniel Geale, Cotto was bouncing on his toes and was smart on how he attacked and retreated. But I think he is going to have a hard time dealing with Alvarez’s size advantage. Geale was slow and awkward, but Alvarez is quick and has much more agility.
I think Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has every physical advantage over Cotto. I think he has faster hands and I think he has more power. I don’t think Cotto has a stamina or experience advantage over Alvarez. I can’t see Alvarez getting gassed in this fight. Cotto will be the one moving, so there is a better chance Cotto will fade instead of Alvarez.
Some people think that Alvarez is draining himself to make weight for this fight, but he has never weighed in over 155 lbs. I think this is a non-issue. He looked strong at the weigh-in.
Cotto is a smart enough boxer to last all 12 rounds, but I think that he will lose a unanimous decision by 2-4 rounds. That doesn’t mean that you should put your money on Alvarez.
Based on the odds listed above, if you put $50 on Alvarez you would only get $18.18 back. That’s a terrible return. You are better off making what I like to call a pessimist’s bet on Cotto. That means bet a small amount on Cotto and hope that his left hook amazes the world. Make a bet you feel comfortable losing. If you put $50 on Cotto and he wins, you will get a return of $107.50.
Cotto is such a good fighter to be an underdog that putting $20 on him makes sense to me. I expect to lose it, but I would be pleased with the $43.00 I could gain if he proves my prediction false.
Regardless of the outcome, I think this will be a good fight. Cotto is a great fighter, but he is fighting a bright star on his way up. Look for this one to go the distance with Alvarez’s hand raised at the end of the night.